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Blaming weather for UK’s stalling GDP is being economical with the truth
George Osborne blames the weather for the 0.5% fall in GDP period October to December 2010, but just how big a part did the snow and ice play in Britain’s stalling economic revival?
Senor Risk Meteorologist Jim Dale says: “For every drop of rain or flake of snow, for every fall and rise in temperature there is a commensurate rise and fall in the demand and supply of the UK’s good and services. It’s our job to provide to companies big and small the very telling figures that link the weather numbers with what actually went on re performance”.
There is no doubt that the very severe conditions of late November and December would have impacted on UK business – but there are two sides to every story, according to Dale. “Where there is a weather loser there tends to be a weather winner on the opposite end of the fence, so construction and high street shops may have had it bad for example, but retailers selling cold weather items such as winter clothing, motor factors and comfort foods would have done well out of the ice and snow, not to mention warm and inviting indoor shopping centres, many of which boasted record footfall figures during the period. Indeed, recent financial reports from some of our biggest companies indicate a mixed pattern of returns, precisely what we would expect to see during a lengthy period of extreme weather”.
British Weather Services, who also have insurance related schemes that protect firms against extreme events, suggest that the weather can only be partially responsible for the GDP fall, given that October and most of November were reasonably benign weather-wise. Dale concludes: “It is far too convenient for George Osborne to lump everything on to the back of weather and not to take into consideration the many nuances of weather impact. George Osborne is guessing, he doesn’t really know and he’s using the poor weather as a shield – very much akin to companies who year in year out do nothing about weather mitigation and use the same excuse. He should know better but sadly doesn’t.”